The fuel crisis gripping Russia is a stark reminder of the war's impact on everyday life, even in the capital Moscow. While the mood in fuel queues is more frustrated than angry, the situation highlights the challenges faced by ordinary Russians. The crisis has sparked a range of reactions, from public frustration to government action, and has implications for the country's political landscape. The question remains: will this economic turmoil translate into political pressure on the Kremlin to change tack in the Ukraine war?
The fuel shortage is a result of Ukraine's drone and missile strikes on Russian oil refineries, as well as the country's struggle to refine enough fuel to meet domestic demand. This has led to long queues at petrol stations, rationing, and even the deployment of Cossacks to keep order in some areas. The situation is particularly striking in Moscow, a city that draws in so much of Russia's resources, yet even here the authorities cannot ensure there is enough petrol and diesel to keep Muscovites on the road.
The crisis has also sparked a range of reactions from the public. Some, like Valery, blame the lack of Russian preparedness as much as Ukrainian missiles, while others, like Yekaterina, express frustration and panic. The situation has also raised questions about the role of social media, with images of drivers queuing for petrol and fights breaking out being shared widely online.
The Kremlin is certainly paying attention to the fuel crisis. President Vladimir Putin has addressed the shortage publicly on state TV, insisting that the Ukrainian attacks are 'obviously creating problems' but insisting 'it's not critical'. The authorities have already begun increasing fuel imports, subsidising fuel prices, and allowing the sale of lower-grade fuel, which some fear could damage engines. The crisis has also sparked a range of economic indicators, with polling organisation Gallup suggesting that Russians are more pessimistic about the state of their economy than at any time in the past 20 years.
However, the question remains: will this economic turmoil translate into political pressure on the Kremlin to change tack in the Ukraine war? Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international affairs at The New School in New York, suggests that Putin is unlikely to bend. 'The more pressure he feels, the more likely he would act aggressively and repressively', she said. 'I think it is serious, but the Western expectation that Russians are going to just take down the regime is very far-fetched'.
The crisis has also sparked a range of comparisons and speculation about the future. Some, like Christopher Weafer, head of regional consultancy Macro Advisory, suggest that the fuel crisis may be a 'game-changer' for economic growth in Russia. Others, like Andrei, express hope that the situation will lead to peace negotiations, while still others, like Putin himself, appear to be doubling down on the war effort. The question remains: what will Putin do next? Will he escalate? And if so, how?
